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Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.
What are FOREX Strategies? https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts. We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns. First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day. Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies. FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques, ... you can survive in this war. Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics. Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action. The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.
You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators. This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month. Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7 The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories. This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies. You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one. The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit. The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.
There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms. Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term. Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.
The Carry Trade
The central idea of Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls. Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy. As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations: AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00 What happens internally in your broker is this.
By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%) The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely. Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example. These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.
What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?
The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you. The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations. With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued. The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market. There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price. You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars. The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business. As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital. Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time. Spend that time learning Price Action, … And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices. Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course. Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...
Styles of Investments in FOREX
The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later. We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term. You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide. These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term. These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons. First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets. Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year). These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends. For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.
Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments
One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor. There are 4 types of well-defined styles. Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX : 1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years. 2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year. 3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month. 4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job. People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading). If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work. The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training. I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.
Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style
Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure. I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology. A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term, … As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action. In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.
The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX
If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ... You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday. The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX. There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training. Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless ... your ego is greater than your common sense. The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost. The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual). Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups. These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX. The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments. I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.
To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations. The points that will affect your decision are:
Time available each day
Level of Experience
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination. And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...
Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit
The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later. I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants. It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin. The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later. These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.
Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance. The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion. This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.
The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability. The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are: - Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments) If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory. There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.
The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis
On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report. I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro) However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done. Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience. That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.
FOREX Market Correlation
The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD). The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis. The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.
Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation
In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD. We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments. On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always. In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences. There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.
FOREX Commodity Correlation
In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis. There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are: - The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD) These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market. The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term. This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy. The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis. This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens. The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia. Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices. To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.
Forex Technical Analysis Reddit
The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns. If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas. And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money. Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible. But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market. Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth? With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time. The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses. The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist. Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books. And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.
The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis
Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language. More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis. In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis. This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit. The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors. Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year. The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets. I hope you have not been a victim of this drama. Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.
The Price Cycle
Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price. You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.
How to Identify Trends?
Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns. In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges. The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle. This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .
The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses
The central idea of technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public. To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis). Your common sense prevails here. If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense. By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates. The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation. https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd
Forex Charts Analysis
I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses. Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction. Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.
Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks). Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks. Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario. Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way. Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
The Price: structure and dynamics
Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner. Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse. People who do the opposite, at best become, ... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors. To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life. I hope you've found this guide helpful!
Forex Trading Basics Reddit - Forex Glossary Terms For Beginners
What is Forex - Terminology
https://preview.redd.it/pmjpy8sqh1x51.jpg?width=580&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b02715d6d6f153592a967f577c18578363ca731c The FOREX market is the largest financial market in the world. On a daily basis, trillions of dollars are traded in different currencies around the world. Being FOREX the basis for international capital transactions, its liquidity and volume are much greater than any other financial market. It is estimated that the average volume traded by the world's largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in a full month, is equal to the volume traded daily in the Forex currency market. In addition, it is estimated that this volume will increase by 25% annually. 80% of transactions are between the US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Australian dollars (AUD) and Canadian (CAD).
What is traded in the Forex market?
We could just say that money. Trading in FOREX simultaneously involves buying one currency (for example euros) and selling another (for example US dollars). These simultaneous purchase and sale operations are carried out through online brokers. Operations are specified in pairs; for example the euro and the dollar (EUR / USD) or the pound sterling and the Yen (GBP / JPY). These types of transactions can be somewhat confusing at first since nothing is being purchased physically. Basically, each currency is tied to the economy of its respective country and its value is a direct reflection of people's perception of that economy. For example, if there is a perception that the economy in Japan is going to weaken, the Yen is likely to be devalued against other currencies. In other words, people are going to sell Yen and they are going to buy currencies from countries where the economy is or will be better than Japan. In general, the exchange of one currency for another reflects the condition of the health of the economy of that country with respect to the health of the economy of other countries. Unlike other financial markets such as the stock market, the currency market does not have a fixed location like the largest exchanges in the world. These types of markets are known as OTC (Over The Counter). Transactions take place independently around the world, mainly over the Internet, and prices can vary from place to place. Due to its decentralized nature, the foreign exchange market is operated 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
The 8 most widely used currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, and AUD) are known as “ major currencies ”. All other currencies are called " minor currencies ." You don't need to worry about minor currencies, as you probably won't start trading them for now. The USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and CHF currencies are the most popular and most liquid currencies on the market.
• Base currency
The base currency is the first currency in any currency pair. It shows how much the base currency is worth against the second currency. For example, if the USD / CHF has a rate of 1.6350, it means that 1 USD is worth 1.6350 CHF. In the forex market, the US dollar is in many cases the base currency to make quotes, the quotes are expressed in units of $ 1 on the other currency of the pair. In some other pairs, the base currency is the British pound, the euro, the Australian dollar, or the New Zealand dollar.
• Quoted currency
The quote currency is the second currency in the currency pair. This is often referred to as a "pip-currency" and any unrealized gains or losses are expressed in this currency.
A pip is the smallest unit of the price of any currency. Almost all currencies consist of 5 significant digits and most pairs have the decimal point immediately after the first digit. For example EUR / USD = 1.2538, in this case, a pip is the smallest change in the fourth decimal space, which is, 0.0001. A notable exception is the USD / JPY pair where the pip equals $ 0.01.
• Purchase price (bid)
The buying price (bid) is the price at which the market is ready to buy a specific currency in the Forex market. At this price, one can sell the base currency. The purchase price is displayed on the left side. For example, in GBP / USD = 1.88112 / 15, the selling price is 1.8812. This means that you can sell a GPB for $ 1.8812.
• Sale Price (ask)
The asking price is the price at which the market is ready to sell a specific currency pair in the Forex market. At this price, you can buy the base currency. The sale price is displayed on the right-hand side. For example, at EUR / USD = 1.2812 / 15, the selling price here is 1.2815. This means that you can buy one euro for $ 1.2815. The selling price is also called the bid price.
All Forex quotes include two prices, the bid (offer) and the ask (demand). The bid is the price at which the broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the bid is the price at which you can sell. The ask is the price at which the broker is willing to sell the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the ask is the price at which you will buy. The difference between the bid and the ask is popularly known as the spread and is the consideration that the online broker receives for its services.
• Transaction costs
The transaction cost, which could be said to be the same as the Spread, is calculated as: Transaction Cost = Ask - Bid. It is the number of pips that are paid when opening a position. The final amount also depends on the size of the operation. It is important to note that depending on the broker and the volatility, the difference between the ask and the bid can increase, making it more expensive to open a trade. This generally happens when there is a lot of volatility and little liquidity, as happens during the announcement of some relevant economic data.
• Cross currency
A cross-currency is any pair where one of the currencies is the US dollar (USD). These pairs show an erratic price behavior when the operator opens two operations in US dollars. For example, opening a long trade to buy EUR / GPB is equivalent to buying EUR / USD and selling GPB / USD. Cross-currency pairs generally carry a higher transaction cost.
When you open a new account margin with a Forex broker, you must deposit a minimum amount of money to your broker. This minimum varies depending on each broker and can be as low as € / $ 100 at higher amounts. Each time a new trade is executed a percentage of your account margin balance will be the initial margin required for a new trade based on the underlying currency pair, current price, and the number of units (or lots) of the trade. . For example, let's say you open a mini account which gives you a leverage of 1: 200 or a margin of 0.5%. Mini accounts work with mini lots. Suppose a mini lot equals $ 10,000. If you are about to open a mini lot, instead of having to invest $ 10,000, you will only need $ 50 ($ 10,000 x 0.5% = $ 50).
Leverage is the ratio of the capital used in a transaction to the required deposit. It is the ability to control large amounts of dollars with relatively less capital. Leverage varies drastically depending on the broker, it can go from 1: 2 to even 1: 2000. The most common level of leverage in Forex can currently be around 1: 200.
• Margin + leverage = dangerous combination
Trading currencies on margin allows you to increase your buying power. This means that if you have $ 5,000 in account margin that allows you a 1: 100 leverage, you can then buy $ 500,000 in foreign exchange as you only have to invest a percentage of the purchase price. Another way of saying this is that you have $ 500,000 in purchasing power. With more purchasing power you can greatly increase your potential profits without an outlay of cash. But be careful, working with a high margin increases your profits but also your losses if the trade does not progress in your favor. >>> Forex Signals With Unbeatable Performance: Verified Forex Results And 5° Rated OnInvesting.com|Free Forex Signals Trial:CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOR FREE
[Econ] uwaaah!~~ senpai, i can't handle the japanese yen. it's too big for me >.<
While Japanese tourists and investors are currently rejoicing at the appreciation of the JPY against most currencies, company executives and METI ministers are readying their tanto and are currently searching for an assistant to decapitate them. Too bad everyone else is getting ready for seppuku too. I jest, but METI and company executives are (to put it lightly), fucking terrified about the JPY’s newfound mastery in these current times. Although firms, tourists, and investors find it easier than ever to do business overseas, exporters are seething from the recent appreciation of the Yen. In addition, the pegging of SE Asian currencies to the Yen and China’s suspected increase in JPY reserves (although yet to be confirmed) have cemented the JPY as an possible replacement for the USD, something that is very bad for Japan’s export economy. To combat this, the BOJ has to change course from its conservative, restrictionary monetary policy (enacted to prevent a bubble economy) to a liberal monetary policy. One may ask, doesn’t this increase the probability of a bubble economy forming? Well, the BOJ has calculated that its conservative monetary policies have averted a bubble from forming. As we saw in 2029 and 2030, GDP growth was lower than predicted back in 2025, indicating that investors weren’t as bullish as before. In addition, strict financial regulations ensured that the predatory and dangerous loans of the 80s and early 90s didn’t make a comeback. Asset prices and land values, despite a nominal increase, did not soar to unreasonable heights. So what is the BOJ doing now? Inflation Japanese inflation has been very low the past three decades, using hovering around the 0.5-1% mark. Although inflation has seen a small increase during the 2020s Asian Economic Boom, it is still around 1%. In response to this, the BOJ has set an inflation goal of 2.5% for 2031 and 2032. The BOJ intends to reach this goal through three methods. 1) Interest and discount rates are to be tempered to 1.50% and 1.75% respectively. This should encourage lending between banks and companies, leading to more liquidity and more spending. 2) Buying back BOJ-issued bonds, focusing on foreign investors first. This will increase the money supply while simultaneously paying back more debt. 3) Quantitative easing increases the money supply and should increase inflation and devaluation of the JPY. These actions, in addition, to increasing inflation (and in turn stimulating domestic consumption), should help to devalue the JPY. Other measures to devalue the JPY are as follows. Depreciation of the JPY As an export-based economy, any appreciation of the JPY is very, very bad for Japan, as one saw during the 1990s. The JPY recently broke the $95 USD mark, with no sign of the appreciation stopping. The BOJ has stated that it intends to block this appreciation of the JPY will all its might, and is targeting a return to the $100 mark. It intends to do by the following methods. 1) Increasing FOREX reserves: Right now the BOJ holds around $2.2 trillion in FOREX, mainly in USD and EUR. Following rumors that China has significantly increased its FOREX reserves (analysts estimate between $500 and $800 billion in new reserves), the BOJ has announced its intentions to follow suit. It has announced an increase in FOREX reserves of $450 billion in USD, EUR, and CNY. ($200 billion in USD, $150 billion in EUR, $100 billion in CNY) This should help depreciate the JPY relative to these currencies and help exporters. 2) Japanese companies who have overseas plants like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are being encouraged to reinvest USD garnered overseas into Japan. In addition to stimulating the domestic economy, this should also increase FOREX supply in Japan. Miscellaneous 1) Domestic consumption tax rate is decreased form 8% to 6.8%. 2) Seeking to exploit the capital and investor flight from the US, a new campaign to attract foreign investment and foreign executives to settle in Japan will be launched. Titled “Land of the Rising Profits”, it will showcase the benefits of setting up shop in Japan as an investor.
The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
Since mid-April, financial tensions have been easing in the emerging countries. Bolstered by the very gradual return of portfolio investment, exchange rates have stabilised.
Since mid-May, cumulative net inflows of non-resident portfolio investment into bond and equity markets amounted to USD 22 bn (according to data from the Institute for International Finance (IIF) for a selection of 20 emerging countries), compared to cumulative net outflows of USD 100 bn from the end of February to mid-May
As a result, the emerging market currencies have regained some of the ground lost in the first 3 to 4 months of the year (+1.6% on average since mid-March, vs. -6% in Q1). Equity prices, in contrast, have erased most of their losses (+17% on average since the end of March, vs. -20% in Q1). Is this normalisation process, which is very advanced in the equity markets, truly justified?
cyclical indicators suggest a recovery in H2 2020. Yet the size and diffusion of the recovery remains highly uncertain. For this reason, the rebound in local equity markets seems a bit excessive and even premature. In Brazil, India and Mexico, the pandemic is not under control, and some governments have even imposed new, selective lockdowns.
Despite the surge in fiscal deficits, for the moment we have not observed any difficulties in refinancing public debt. Bond yields have been held down through conventional monetary easing (via policy rate cuts, which have been widespread throughout the emerging countries) and/or through quantitative easing (by expanding the ways in which central banks can refinance banks and indirectly companies, or through the monetary financing of fiscal deficits). Yet if the pandemic persists, this financial support will not prevent an upsurge in delinquencies and non-performing loans.
Lastly, higher risk premiums on sovereign debt in the local currency increase the attractiveness of carry trades and the inflow of volatile capital at a time when the emerging countries need financial stability even more than usual. For of a selection of 17 emerging countries, the median yield spread between the sovereign bond and a bond with an equivalent maturity in the financing currency (USD, EUR or JPY) remained stable at about 450 basis points (bp) between end-December 2019 and end-June 2020. But this spread must be looked at in terms of foreign exchange volatility to evaluate the profitability of the carry trade. After taking into account the policy rate differential, and thus the possibility of short-term foreign exchange coverage of positions (via the futures market or currency swaps), the median yield spread has nearly tripled, from 80bp to 200bp. For investors ready to take the risk of rolling over very short-term forex hedges, the spread is very attractive.
Trading YYY/ZZZ pair with XXX currency (related to question in FAQ)
I am learning alot about forex but I have not found an explicit answer to this question. I am a bit confused about trading a pair of currencies when I do not own either currency. For example, my account is funded with CAD, so if I trade USD/EUR, am I not risking cancelling out potential gains or multiplying losses based on the fluctuation of CAD/USD at the same time? The answer to this question in the FAQ makes it sounds like it is a non issue: From the FAQ:
" I AM CONFUSED ABOUT THIS - HOW CAN I GET CURRENCY XXX IF I'M TRADING YYY/ZZZ?? This confuses many new traders. When you create your FX account, you will be nominating what the base currency is, this is usually the currency where you live. Live in the United States? USD. Live in Canada? CAD. Live in Tokyo? JPY. Live in The EU? EUR and so on.... That is the currency that all trades will be paid out in. The pairs that you trade have no bearing on this outcome. It may help to think of it in this way: "I am going long / going short on the asset known as USD/JPY and will be paid out in my base currency." Don't look at the pair you are trading as multiple exchanges, look at it as a single vehicle, this may help you."
From a risk mitigation stand point, would it be best practice to only trade pairs based on CAD/XXX or would it make more sense to convert my CAD funds to USD for the long term and gamble that the exchange rate remains roughly constant? If there are any resources you know of that address this question, please let me know! Thanks!
Dollar drifts higher as coronavirus, China data sap confidence
This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
SINGAPORE - The dollar steadied on Friday as a jump in U.S. bond yields and a drag on sentiment from lacklustre Chinese economic data put the brakes on a selldown of the world's reserve currency. The mood had the dollar within reach of snapping a seven-week losing streak against the risk-sensitive Aussie AUD=D3, which has settled around $0.7149 and is flat for the week. The yen JPY= is on course for its weakest week against the dollar in two months and is down about 0.9% at 106.84 from last Friday's close. The biggest loser has been the kiwi NZD=D3, which was pressured at $0.6538, as the country faces a fresh coronavirus outbreak and after the central bank this week flagged increased bond buying and again mentioned the prospect of negative rates. Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar remains 0.2% lower for the week, but it has appeared to arrest a slide that has it about 9.5% below its March peak. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sparked a bond rally this week by promising to extend its own purchases and, next week, speed them up as well.
I am a professional Day Trader working for a Prop Fund, Hope I can help people out and answer some questions
Howdy all, I work professionally for a proprietary trading fund, and have worked for quite a few in my time, hope I can offer some insights on trading etc you guys might have. Bonus for you guys Here are the columns in my trading journal and various explanations where appropriate: Trade Number – Simply is this the first trade of the year? The 10th?, The 50th? I count a trade that you opened and closed just one trade number. For example if you buy EUUSD today and sell it 50 pips later in the day and close out the trade, then that is just one trade for recording purposes. I do not create a second trade number to describe the exit. Both the entry and exit are under the same trade number. Ticket Number – This is ticket number / order ID number that your broker gives you for the trade on your platform. Day of the Week – This would be simply the day of the week the trade was initiated Financial Instrument / Currency Pair – Whatever Financial Instrument or currency pair you are trading. If you are trading EUUSD, put EUUSD. If you are trading the EuroFX futures contract, then put in Euro FX. If you are trading the emini S&P, then put in Emini S&P 500. If you are trading a stock, put in the ticker symbol. Etc. Buy/Sell or Long/Short – Did you buy or sell to open the new trade? If you bought something to open the trade, then write in either BUY or LONG. If you sold(shorted) something to open a trade, then write in SOLD, or SHORT. This is a personal preference. Some people like to put in their journals as BUY/SELL. Other people like to write in Long/Short. My preference is for writing in long/short, since that is the more professional way to say it. I like to use the lingo where possible. Order Type – Market or Limit – When you entered the trade was it a market order or limit order? Some people can enter a trade using a combination of market and limit orders. If you enter a trade for $1 million half of which was market order and the other half was limit order, then you can write in $500,000 Market, $500,000 Limit as a bullet points. Position Size / Units / Contracts / Shares – How big was the total trade you entered? If you bought 1 standard lot of a currency pair, then write in $100,000 or 1 standard lot. If you bought 5 gold futures contracts, then write in 5 contracts. If you bought 1,000 shares of stock, then write in 1,000 shares. Etc. Entry Price – The entry price you received entering your opening position. If you entered at multiple prices, then you can either write in all the different fills you got, or specify the average price received. Entry Date – Date that you entered the position. For example January 23, 2012. Or you can write in 1/23/12 . Entry Time – Time that you opened the position. If it is multiple positions, then you can specify each time for each various fill, or you can specify the time range. For example if you got $100,000 worth of EUUSD filled at 3:00 AM EST, and another $100,000 filled at 3:05 and another $100,000 filled at 3:25, then you can write all those in, or you can specify a range of 3:00 – 3:30 AM EST. Entry Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in pips. If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread. Entry Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread. Stop Loss Size – How big is your stop loss size? If you are trading a currency pair, then you write in the pips. If you are trading the S&P futures contract, then write in the number of points. If you are trading a stock, then write in how many cents or dollars your stop is away from your entry price. % Risk – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much % loss of your equity is that? This is where you input your risk per trade expressed in % terms if you use such a position sizing method. If you risked 0.50% of your account on the trade, then put in 0.50% Risk in dollars – If you were to get stopped out of the trade, how much loss in dollars is that. For example if you have a $100,000 account and you risked 1% on a trade, then write in $1,000 dollars Potential Reward: Risk Ratio – This is a column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what the potential reward risk ratio of the trade is. If you are trading using a 100 pip stop and you expect that the market can reasonably move 300 pips, then you can write in 3:1. Of course this is an interesting column because you can look at it after the trade is finished and see how close you were or how far removed from reality your initial projections were. Potential Win Rate – This is another column that I only sometimes fill in. You write in what you believe the potential win rate of this trade is. If you were to place this trade 10 times in a row, how many times do you think you would win? I write it in as percentage terms. If you believe the trade has a 50% chance to win, then write in 50%. Type of Inefficiency – This is where you write in what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture. I use the word inefficiency here. I believe it is important to think of trading setups as inefficiencies. If you think in terms of inefficiencies, then you will think in terms of the market being mispriced, then you will think about the reasons why the market is mispriced and why such market expectations for example are out of alignment with reality. In this category I could write in different types of trades such as fading the stops, different types of news trades, expecting stops to get tripped, betting on sentiment intensifying, betting on sentiment reversing, etc. I do not write in all the reasons why I took the trade in this column. I do that in another column. This column is just to broadly define what type of inefficiency you are looking to capture. Chart Time Frame – I do not use this since all my order flow based trades have nothing to do with what chart time frame I look at. However, if you are a chartist or price action trader, then you may want to include what chart time frame you found whatever pattern you were looking at. Exit Price – When you exit your trade, you enter the price you received here. Exit Date – The date you exited your trade. Exit Time – The time you exited your trade. Trade Duration – In hours, minutes, days or weeks. If the trade lasts less than an hour, I will usually write in the duration in minutes. Anything in between 1 and 48 hours, I write in the hours amount. Anything past that and I write it as days or weeks as appropriate, etc. Pips the trade went against you before turning into a winner – If you have a trade that suffered a draw down, but did not stop you out and eventually was a winner, then you write it how many pips the trade went against you before it turned into a profitable trade. The reason you have this column is to compare it to your stop loss size and see any patterns that emerge. If you notice that a lot of your winning trades suffer a big draw down and get near your stop loss points but turn out to be a profitable trade, then you can further refine your entry strategy to get in a better price. Slippage on the Exit – If you get stopped out for a loss, then you write in how many pips you suffered as slippage, if any. For example if you are long EUUSD at 1.2500 and have your stop loss at 1.2400 and the market drops and you get filled at 1.2398, then you would write in -2 pips slippage. In other words you lost 2 pips as slippage. This is important for a few different reasons. Firstly, you want to see if the places you put your stop at suffer from slippage. If they do, perhaps you can get better stop loss placement, or use it as useful information to find new inefficiencies. Secondly, you want to see how much slippage your broker is giving you. If you are trading the same system with different brokers, then you can record the slippage from each one and see which has the lowest slippage so you can choose them. Profit/Loss -You write in the profit and/or loss in pips, cents, points, etc as appropriate. If you bought EUUSD at 1.2500 and sell it at 1.2550, you made 50 pips, so write in +50 pips. If you bought a stock at $50 and you sell it at $60, then write in +$10. If you buy the S&P futures at 1,250 and sell them at 1,275, then write in +25 points. If you buy the GBP/USD at 1.5000 and you sell it at 1.4900, then write in -100 pips. Etc. I color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss. Profit/Loss In Dollars – You write the profit and/or loss in dollars (or euros, or jpy, etc whatever currency your account is denominated in). If you are long $100,000 of EUUSD at 1.2500 and sell it at 1.2600, then write in +$1,000. If you are short $100,000 GBP/USD at 1.5900 and it rises to 1.6000 and you cover, then write in -$1,000. I color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss. Profit/Loss as % of your account – Write in the profit and/or loss as % of your account. If a trade made you 2% of your account, then write in +2%. If a trade lost 0.50%, then write in -0.50%. I color code the box background to green for profit and red for loss. Reward:Risk Ratio or R multiple: If the trade is a profit, then write in how many times your risk did it pay off. If you risked 0.50% and you made 1.00%, then write in +2R or 2:1 or 2.0. If you risked 0.50% and a trade only makes 0.10%, then write in +0.20R or 0.2:1 or 0.2. If a trade went for a loss that is equal to or less than what you risked, then I do not write in anything. If the loss is greater than the amount you risked, then I do write it in this column. For example lets say you risk 0.50% on a stock, but overnight the market gaps and you lose 1.50% on a trade, then I would write it in as a -3R. What Type of trading loss if the trade lost money? – This is where I describe in very general terms a trade if it lost money. For example, if I lost money on a trade and the reason was because I was buying in a market that was making fresh lows, but after I bought the market kept on going lower, then I would write in: “trying to pick a bottom.” If I tried shorting into a rising uptrend and I take a loss, then I describe it as “trying to pick a top.” If I am buying in an uptrend and buy on a retracement, but the market makes a deeper retracement or trend change, then I write in “tried to buy a ret.” And so on and so forth. In very general terms I describe it. The various ways I use are: • Trying to pick a bottom • Trying to pick a top • Shorting a bottom • Buying a top • Shorting a ret and failed • Wrongly predicted news • Bought a ret and failed • Fade a resistance level • Buy a support level • Tried to buy a breakout higher • Tried to short a breakout lower I find this category very interesting and important because when performing trade journal analysis, you can notice trends when you have winners or losing trades. For example if I notice a string of losing trades and I notice that all of them occur in the same market, and all of them have as a reason: “tried to pick a bottom”, then I know I was dumb for trying to pick a bottom five times in a row. I was fighting the macro order flow and it was dumb. Or if I notice a string of losers and see that I tried to buy a breakout and it failed five times in a row, but notice that the market continued to go higher after I was stopped out, then I realize that I was correct in the move, but I just applied the wrong entry strategy. I should have bought a retracement, instead of trying to buy a fresh breakout. That Day’s Weaknesses (If any) – This is where I write in if there were any weaknesses or distractions on the day I placed the trade. For example if you are dead tired and place a trade, then write in that you were very tired. Or if you place a trade when there were five people coming and out of your trading office or room in your house, then write that in. If you placed the trade when the fire alarm was going off then write that in. Or if you place a trade without having done your daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible weakness that threw you off your game. That Day’s Strengths (If any) – Here you can write in what strengths you had during the day you placed your trade. If you had complete peace and quiet, write that in. If you completed all your daily habits, then write that in. Etc. Whatever you believe was a possible strength during the day. How many Open Positions Total (including the one you just placed) – How many open trades do you have after placing this one? If you have zero open trades and you just placed one, then the total number of open positions would be one, so write in “1.” If you have on three open trades, and you are placing a new current one, then the total number of open positions would be four, so write in “4.” The reason you have this column in your trading journal is so that you can notice trends in winning and losing streaks. Do a lot of your losing streaks happen when you have on a lot of open positions at the same time? Do you have a winning streak when the number of open positions is kept low? Or can you handle a lot of open positions at the same time? Exit Spread Cost (in pips) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in pips. If you executed a market order, how many pips did you pay in spread. Exit Spread Cost (in dollars) – This is optional if you want to keep track of your spread cost in dollars. If you executed a market order, how many dollars did you pay in spread. Total Spread Cost (in pips) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in pips. Total Spread Cost (in dollars) – You write in the total spread cost of the entry and exit in dollars. Commission Cost – Here you write in the total commission cost that you incurred for getting in and out of the trade. If you have a forex broker that is commission free and only gets compensated through the spread, then you do not need this column. Starting Balance – The starting account balance that you had prior to the placing of the trade Interest/swap – If you hold forex currency pairs past the rollover, then you either get interest or need to pay out interest depending on the rollover rates. Or if you bought a stock and got a dividend then write that in. Or if you shorted a stock and you had to pay a dividend, then write that in. Ending Balance – The ending balance of your account after the trade is closed after taking into account trade P&L, commission cost, and interest/swap. Reasons for taking the trade – Here is where you go into much more detail about why you placed the trade. Write out your thinking. Instead of writing a paragraph or two describing my thinking behind the trade, I condense the reasons down into bullet points. It can be anywhere from 1-10 bullet points. What I Learned – No matter if the trade is a win or loss, write down what you believed you learned. Again, instead of writing out a paragraph or two, I condense it down into bullet points. it can be anywhere from 1-10 bullet points. I do this during the day the trade closed as a profit or loss. What I learned after Long Term reflection, several days, weeks, or months – This is the very interesting column. This is important because after you have a winning or losing trade, you will not always know the true reasons why it happened. You have your immediate theories and reasons which you include in the previous column. However, there are times when after several days, weeks, or months, you find the true reason and proper market belief about why your trade succeeded or failed. It can take a few days or weeks or months to reach that “aha” moment. I am not saying that I am thinking about trades I placed ten months ago. I try to forget about them and focus on the present moment. However, there will be trades where you have these nagging questions about they failed or succeeded and you will only discover those reasons several days, weeks, or months later. When you discover the reasons, you write them in this column.
Hard. Following up on my post about trading economic news, here are some hard numbers about news releases. If you can't be bothered to read any further, just know that a high S value means there is money to be made by trading the release of that economic metric. I collected historical data (consensus and actual) for each of these economic metrics from January 2018 to the present. These are mostly monthly metrics; one is quarterly, one is biweekly, and one is weekly. I did this manually from an economic news aggregation website because I'm too cheap to pay for exported data. I also noted whether each release was the primary (or only) news being released at that precise moment or whether there were other important economic metrics being released at the same time. Then I wrote software to fetch 2 minutes of USD/JPY price data (in 5 second candles) starting at the time of each release and correlated each candle to the "surprise" in the metric (the difference between the consensus and the actual). That produced data for each metric that looks like this and give you an idea how reliably the news predicts the short-term price move. Next the software went back through the price history and measured the "coordinated movement" of the currency pair during each candle. By that I mean it measured the size of each candle in pips and then set the sign to be positive if its moving in the same direction as the first candle or negative otherwise, and averaged all those numbers together. These charts look like this and give you an idea how dramatically the price moves in response to the news. Then, for each candle, the absolute value of the correlation is multiplied against the coordinated movement, creating a "tradeability" score. The idea is that a strong (positive or negative) correlation and a strong coordinated movement yields a high score, and either a weak correlation or a small price movement yields a low score. These charts look like this. Finally, for each news release I measured the maximum value of the correlation (R) and the maximum value of the tradeability score (S). Since I don't have access to anything with finer granularity than 5 seconds, it's no surprise that candle 0 had the maximum correlation and maximum tradeability for each metric. I did this process twice for every metric: first over all releases and second over only those releases that were the primary or only release happening at that moment. I kept the results from the one that returned the better net maximum tradeability score. The net maximum tradeability score is just the product of the maximum tradeability score and the number of releases being considered, either all of them or some smaller number. (This helps avoid bias in the results for metrics that are often released at the same time as other metrics.) In the results linked at the top of this post, the metrics are ordered by decreasing maximum tradeability score (S) with maximum correlation (R) also shown. Remember, R = +1 means perfect positive linear correlation, R = -1 means perfect negative linear correlation, and R = 0 means no correlation. S values less than 3 are essentially untradeable due to the spread. A couple notes:
Non Farms Payroll, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, is the most tradeable by far. Although not shown here, the correlation is even higher (0.8xx) if you omit those releases that occur simultaneously as other news, but because of the strong correlation and high pip movement it's better overall to consider all NFP releases.
Retail Sales is tradeable, but Personal Income and Personal Spending is not. This was a surprise to me, I haven't traded any of these metrics before. I'll have to look into what is exactly in each one to understand why this is.
With the exception of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, all of these releases are correlated with the price movement, but many of them aren't practical to trade because the movement is too small.
The negative sign and weak correlation on Inflation Rate MoM is a bug, I think. I got a different (positive) number when I ran it earlier, but then I was on a conference call while reformatting the data and I may have done something dumb. I'll go back and review it.
It takes me about 15 minutes to scrape 2 years of monthly data by hand and type it up, and then the software takes about 10 seconds to run per metric. If there are regular forecasted economic releases that you'd like to see correlated and scored, let me know! I can do other currency pairs and other country's economic news as well, it's just a matter of data collection.
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Hi guys I’m new to forex and I was wondering why at 7 a.m some of the major currency pairs had a major bullish candle? Does it have to do with U.S unemployment rates coming out? If so why did USD/JPY go bullish instead of bearish?
Cryptocurrency Trading With Forex. How does It work?
The demand of cryptocurrency is growing every day. New technologies demonstrate potential power, demonstrating that a currency that is not controlled by the state can really exist. Rather than just Bitcoin today a large number of alternative forks have been created in the blockchain. In this article, we will examine what is a cryptocurrency, features of its reputation, as well as methods of working in the Forex market.
What Are Cryptocurrencies?
So, first, let's find out what is cryptocurrency. In essence, it is a decentralized digital network that is based on mathematical principles and is protected by cryptographic methods. This Digital currency is anonymous, genuine, and in fact open, so shifts between wallet owners are done in minutes, depending on the type of currency. Digital money is not attached to fiat currency, and its product is originally restricted by the algorithm. First in cryptocurrency is Bitcoin, which appeared in 2009. After Bitcoin demonstrated its promise, which happened relatively quickly, other digital currencies called altcoins began to appear at an active rate. Today, there are alternative "crypts" with more than 950 items. Nevertheless, not all of them are traded on exchanges and are engaging to investors, miners and traders. The cryptocurrency market operates 7 days a week and 24 hours a day, allowing exchange participants to buy, sell, and exchange currencies at any convenient time. This type of working also dismisses the concept of a trading session, which indicates that price variations can be hard at any time of the day. Furthermore, the market is very volatile, increasing its speculative appeal, and a large number of altcoins opens up more opportunities for exchange participants in terms of trade and investment. First of all, popularity is, of course, Bitcoin, and the percentage of its dominance over other currencies is 42.2%. The most famous coins today involve Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, Cardano and Zcash. Overall, in today's crypto market, there is active growth of many currencies. In this connection, investments in altcoins raised, which in a particular way, affected their development and rose theirs in value. Without a doubt, in the market for every cryptocurrency today, one can observe deep bribes or negligible price corrections. However, the general growth trend is unequivocally present. Therefore, many have already taken their savings out from under the mattresses and rushed to buy dynamic developing alternative currencies.
Crypto Trading with Forex Brokers
Today, digital money is available on brokerage firms' platforms as an alternative trading tool, which is implemented not only in direct trading of crypto assets but also in indifferent value contracts. Many Forex brokers provide you to start crypto accounts and trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc in pairs with EUR, JPY USD, RUR, and CNH The replenishment of the account and the withdrawal of funds are carried out through specialized payment systems. Therefore, after the withdrawal of profits, the trader will only have to exchange the coins earned for real money on online exchanges. Also, some brokers allow direct trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum alongside the dollar. Cryptocurrency is a promising investment and trading tool where everyone can find their own profit. In fact, it is easier to exchange it in Forex, since you can win with the same success both in the increases in the course and in your falls. The most reliable Forex brokers to gamble on cryptocurrencies foretell a continuation of the growth trend in the estimation of all currencies, so the one who worries that the bubble will collapse still has an opportunity to obtain their share of the desired profit. Those who do not have digital currency can use CFD contracts for difference in normal types of trading accounts with related efficiency This service is obtainable in the Alpari, InstaForex and Forex Club brokers.
Elaborating on Datadash's 50k BTC Prediction: Why We Endorse the Call
As originally published via CoinLive I am the Co-Founder at CoinLive. Prior to founding Coinlive.io, my area of expertise was inter-market analysis. I came across Datadash 50k BTC prediction this week, and I must take my hats off to what I believe is an excellent interpretation of the inter-connectivity of various markets. At your own convenience, you can find a sample of Intermarket analysis I've written in the past before immersing myself into cryptos full-time. Gold inter-market: 'Out of sync' with VIX, takes lead from USD/JPY USD/JPY inter-market: Watch divergence US-Japan yield spread EUUSD intermarket: US yields collapse amid supply environment Inter-market analysis: Risk back in vogue, but for how long? USD/JPY intermarket: Bulls need higher adj in 10-y US-JP spread The purpose of this article is to dive deeper into the factors Datadash presents in his video and how they can help us draw certain conclusions about the potential flows of capital into crypto markets and the need that will exist for a BTC ETF. Before I do so, as a brief explainer, let's touch on what exactly Intermarket analysis refers to: Intermarket analysis is the global interconnectivity between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and any other asset class; Global markets are an ever-evolving discounting and constant valuation mechanism and by studying their interconnectivity, we are much better positioned to explain and elaborate on why certain moves occur, future directions and gain insights on potential misalignments that the market may not have picked up on yet or might be ignoring/manipulating. While such interconnectivity has proven to be quite limiting when it comes to the value one can extract from analyzing traditional financial assets and the crypto market, Datadash has eloquently been able to build a hypothesis, which as an Intermarket analyst, I consider very valid, and that matches up my own views. Nicolas Merten constructs a scenario which leads him to believe that a Bitcoin ETF is coming. Let's explore this hypothesis. I will attempt to summarize and provide further clarity on why the current events in traditional asset classes, as described by Datadash, will inevitably result in a Bitcoin ETF. Make no mistake, Datadash's call for Bitcoin at 50k by the end of 2018 will be well justified once a BTC ETF is approved. While the timing is the most challenging part t get right, the end result won't vary. If one wishes to learn more about my personal views on why a BTC ETF is such a big deal, I encourage you to read my article from late March this year. Don't Be Misled by Low Liquidity/Volume - Fundamentals Never Stronger The first point Nicholas Merten makes is that despite depressed volume levels, the fundamentals are very sound. That, I must say, is a point I couldn't agree more. In fact, I recently wrote an article titled TheParadox: Bitcoin Keeps Selling as Intrinsic Value Set to Explode where I state "the latest developments in Bitcoin's technology makes it paradoxically an ever increasingly interesting investment proposition the cheaper it gets." However, no article better defines where we stand in terms of fundamentals than the one I wrote back on May 15th titled Find Out Why Institutions Will Flood the Bitcoin Market, where I look at the ever-growing list of evidence that shows why a new type of investors, the institutional ones, looks set to enter the market in mass. Nicholas believes that based on the supply of Bitcoin, the market capitalization can reach about $800b. He makes a case that with the fundamentals in bitcoin much stronger, it wouldn't be that hard to envision the market cap more than double from its most recent all-time high of more than $300b. Interest Rates Set to Rise Further First of all, one of the most immediate implications of higher rates is the increased difficulty to bear the costs by borrowers, which leads Nicholas to believe that banks the likes of Deutsche Bank will face a tough environment going forward. The CEO of the giant German lender has actually warned that second-quarter results would reflect a “revenue environment [that] remains challenging." Nicholas refers to the historical chart of Eurodollar LIBOR rates as illustrated below to strengthen the case that interest rates are set to follow an upward trajectory in the years to come as Central Banks continue to normalize monetary policies after a decade since the global financial crisis. I'd say, that is a correct assumption, although one must take into account the Italian crisis to be aware that a delay in higher European rates is a real possibility now. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/947/content_2018-05-30_1100.png) Let's look at the following combinations: Fed Fund Rate Contract (green), German 2-year bond yields (black) and Italy's 10-year bond yield (blue) to help us clarify what's the outlook for interest rates both in Europe and the United States in the foreseeable future. The chart suggests that while the Federal Reserve remains on track to keep increasing interest rates at a gradual pace, there has been a sudden change in the outlook for European rates in the short-end of the curve. While the European Central Bank is no longer endorsing proactive policies as part of its long-standing QE narrative, President Mario Draghi is still not ready to communicate an exit strategy to its unconventional stimulus program due to protectionism threats in the euro-area, with Italy the latest nightmare episode. Until such major step is taken in the form of a formal QE conclusion, interest rates in the European Union will remain depressed; the latest drastic spike in Italy's benchmark bond yield to default levels is pre-emptive of lower rates for longer, an environment that on one hand may benefit the likes of Deutsche Bank on lower borrowing costs, but on the other hand, sets in motion a bigger headache as risk aversion is set to dominate financial markets, which leads to worse financial consequences such as loss of confidence and hence in equity valuations. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/948/content_2018-05-30_1113.png) Deutsche Bank - End of the Road? Nicholas argues that as part of the re-restructuring process in Deutsche Bank, they will be facing a much more challenging environment as lending becomes more difficult on higher interest rates. At CoinLive, we still believe this to be a logical scenario to expect, even if a delay happens as the ECB tries to deal with the Italian political crisis which once again raises the question of whether or not Italy should be part of the EU. Reference to an article by Zerohedge is given, where it states: "One day after the WSJ reported that the biggest German bank is set to "decimate" its workforce, firing 10,000 workers or one in ten, this morning Deutsche Bank confirmed plans to cut thousands of jobs as part of new CEO Christian Sewing's restructuring and cost-cutting effort. The German bank said its headcount would fall “well below” 90,000, from just over 97,000. But the biggest gut punch to employee morale is that the bank would reduce headcount in its equities sales and trading business by about 25%." There is an undeniably ongoing phenomenon of a migration in job positions from traditional financial markets into blockchain, which as we have reported in the past, it appears to be a logical and rational step to be taken, especially in light of the new revenue streams the blockchain sector has to offer. Proof of that is the fact that Binance, a crypto exchange with around 200 employees and less than 1 year of operations has overcome Deutsche Bank, in total profits. What this communicates is that the opportunities to grow an institution’s revenue stream are formidable once they decide to integrate cryptocurrencies into their business models. One can find an illustration of Deutsche Bank's free-fall in prices below: !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/946/content_2018-05-30_1052.png) Nicholas takes notes of a chart in which one can clearly notice a worrying trend for Italian debt. "Just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!", the team of Economists at Citi explained. One can find the article via ZeroHedge here. !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/953/content_2018-05-30_1451.png) Equities & Housing to Suffer the Consequences Nicholas notes that trillions of dollars need to exit these artificially-inflated equity markets. He even mentions a legendary investor such as George Soros, who has recently warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, on lingering debt concerns in Europe and a strengthening US dollar, as a destabilizing factor for both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals. Ray Dalio, another legend in the investing world and Founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, "has ramped up its short positions in European equities in recent weeks, bringing their total value to an estimated $22 billion", MarketWatch reports. Nicholas extracts a chart by John Del Vecchio at lmtr.com where it illustrates the ratio between stocks and commodities at the lowest in over 50 years. As the author states: "I like to look for extremes in the markets. Extremes often pinpoint areas where returns can be higher and risk lower than in other time periods. Take the relationship between commodities and stocks. The chart below shows that commoditieshavennot been cheaper than stocks in a generation. We often hear this time it is different” to justify what’s going on in the world. But, one thing that never changes is human nature. People push markets to extremes. Then they revert. " !(https://coinlive.io/ckeditor_assets/pictures/954/content_2018-05-30_1459.png) Bitcoin ETF the Holy Grail for a Cyclical Multi-Year Bull Run It is precisely from this last chart above that leads Nicholas to believe we are on the verge of a resurgence in commodity prices. Not only that but amid the need of all this capital to exit stocks and to a certain extent risky bonds (Italian), a new commodity-based digital currency ETF based on Bitcoin will emerge in 2018. The author of Datadash highlights the consideration to launching a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC. At CoinLive, our reporting of the subject can be found below: "Back in April, it was reported that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has put back on the table two Bitcoin ETF proposals, according to public documents. The agency is under formal proceedings to approve a rule change that would allow NYSE Arca to list two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) proposed by fund provider ProShares. The introduction of an ETF would make Bitcoin available to a much wider share of market participants, with the ability to directly buy the asset at the click of a button, essentially simplifying the current complexity that involves having to deal with all the cumbersome steps currently in place." Nicholas refers to the support the Bitcoin ETF has been receiving by the Cboe president Chris Concannon, which is a major positive development. CoinLive reported on the story back in late March, noting that "a Bitcoin ETF will without a doubt open the floodgates to an enormous tsunami of fresh capital entering the space, which based on the latest hints by Concannon, the willingness to keep pushing for it remains unabated as the evolution of digital assets keeps its course." It has been for quite some time CoinLive's conviction, now supported by no other than Nicholas Merten from Datadash, that over the next 6 months, markets will start factoring in the event of the year, that is, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF that will serve as a alternative vehicle to accommodate the massive flows of capital leaving some of the traditional asset classes. As Nicholas suggests, the SEC will have little choice but to provide alternative investments. Bitcoin as a Hedge to Lower Portfolios' Volatility Last but not least, crypto assets such as Bitcoin and the likes have an almost non-existent correlation to other traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities, which makes for a very attractive and broadly-applicable diversification strategy for the professional money as it reduces one’s portfolio volatility. The moment a Bitcoin ETF is confirmed, expect the non-correlation element of Bitcoin as a major driving force to attract further capital. Anyone Can BeWrongDatadash, But You Won't be Wrong Alone Having analyzed the hypothesis by Nicholas Merten, at CoinLive we believe that the conclusion reached, that is, the creation of a Bitcoin ETF that will provide shelter to a tsunami of capital motivated by the diversification and store of value appeal of Bitcoin, is the next logical step. As per the timing of it, we also anticipate, as Nicholas notes, that it will most likely be subject to the price action in traditional assets. Should equities and credit markets hold steady, it may result in a potential delay, whereas disruption in the capital market may see the need for a BTC ETF accelerate. Either scenario, we will conclude with a quote we wrote back in March. "It appears as though an ETF on Bitcoin is moving from a state of "If" to "When." Datadash is certainly not alone on his 50k call. BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes appears to think along the same line. On behalf of the CoinLive Team, we want to thank Nicholas Merten at Datadash for such enlightening insights.
EDIT: I realize this is long, but I feel it's important to have this info out there. Maybe save it for later when you see this narrative being pushed around so you can come back and get the other side. EDIT 2: TL:DR - Most negative analysis on this sub lately of Tether are likely from a single biased source that stretches a lot to make his points, and there is simply not enough Tether in the market nor is it concentrated enough to create a catastrophic problem or significant inflation for any USDT currency pair. Like many of you, I have heard the stories and posts about the fraudulent tether, I trade in this space on many exchanges and the growing concern is worrying, so I did my due diligence, and I would like to share it with the community. First and most importantly IMO, all this controversy stems from just one account/person. A person on twitter going by the handle @Bitfinexed - https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed Here you can see this person's writings - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/latest Spoofy, Tethers and institutional investors are what they contend to be the lies and fraud, AND that this entire rally in 2017 is based on fraudulent Tethers and spoofing, and that this will implode the markets. I feel this is also important… Turns out this person sold at $1000, maybe the real reason he is on this mission??… https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/896460700461277185 Now for some troubling info, the majority of this narrative (FUD??) here on Reddit in the last month come from just three accounts. https://www.reddit.com/useAtlasRand1/submitted/ https://www.reddit.com/usecetusfund/submitted/ https://www.reddit.com/useAnythingForSuccess As you can see these accounts entire mission is to post constantly about this. They all show up on the other’s post to comment regularly. Btw, some people on the pro-finex side think this is a smear campaign from other exchanges. I don’t believe this to be the case. This person(s) only talk about TetheFinex, yet Tether is used and traded by the $millions daily on 3 of the top 5 exchanges, Finex, Bittrex, Polo, yet never a word about those other exchanges. (Check the USDT volume on other exchanges) https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/tethe#markets Therefore, if it is an exchange, it isn’t Trex/Polo because this would affect them as well. If it was an exchange other than Trex/Polo they would have plenty of fire power against 3 of the top 5 exchanges with Tether fraud. This leads me to believe it is most likely a sad person(s) with an ax to grind. They might have lost their $ on Finex to what they believe are spoofers/fraud and or they were part of the finex hack and sold there BFX too early. Btw I see contention that Bitfinex did NOT pay back the $ from the hack. They did, but some people are mad because they sold BFX early and didn’t recoup full $ amount from haircuts, but that was their decision. ~ POINTS OF CONTENTION SPOOFING This is what set my alarm bells off about these articles I read from Bitfinexed. Specifically spoofing… https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4 and this nugget…“And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” from this article… https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-fraudulent-tethers-being-used-for-margin-lending-on-bitfinex-5de9dd80f330 Claiming spoofing shows this person has limited markets/trading knowledge. Clearly they haven’t watched an order book of any exchange in crypto, equities, or Forex. This is called scalping or scare walls. Again this is done in every market around the globe. Here is a professional FOREX trader talking about scalping, how it works, who/why they do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYMIPmgRb_M&list=WL&index=94 TL;DW - they do this to get the price where they want it because they know people are watching the order book (the video is quite enlightening), and the key point that keeps this from being an illegal activity (on regulated exchanges) is THAT THEY DO MAKE TRADES FOR THOSE SIZES eventually. This doesn’t always work and they get stuck in these positions. Risk/reward. The ironic part about this spoofing idea is Finex is one of the few, if not only exchanges, that offer hidden orders. So people trying to scalp always have to worry if there is a monster hidden order lurking. Go to the UPDATE: AUGUST 7TH of this story and watch the video he claims proves spoofing and Phil Potter admitting it in the voice over. https://hackernoon.com/meet-spoofy-how-a-single-entity-dominates-the-price-of-bitcoin-39c711d28eb4 I see nothing wrong with what Phil says and no proof of anything in the video. Again this is true on every exchange trading anything of volume in the world. People with large amounts of money move markets, oh the horror. I “technically” do this when I place an order and pull it for whatever reason (scared, mistake, etc.) just not in large sums, but I would if I had large sums. “And who the hell is going to go margin long so dramatically after a huge crash?” The crash they are referring to is from the early June ATH to the mid-July correction. A 45-day crash? Well, I am one of those people that went margin long. And many many others who read charts, resistance, support, retracement info. Again, this smacks of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. REASON FOR PRICE RISE/BTC GOES UP WHEN TETHERS ARE CREATED This is absurd. This completely negates everything else, the Japanese currency ruling and them entering the market, Koreans coming into the market in a huge way (they now have the largest exchange by far with close to a Billion traded DAILY, oh and they don’t use Tether at all), the successful hard fork, or the more (positive!) interest from the media and people than ever before in BTC history. Instead, we are supposed to think that $395 million dollars of tethers are the reason for this rise in a $160+ Billion market cap. ￼ C’mon people! Look at that volume for the last 30 days. https://imgur.com/a/vKJ5g Also, the overwhelming majority of trade does not exist in Tether but KRW, CNY, USD, JPY. Tethers are usually created when extra liquidity is needed, be it a crash or a spike. Because more people are trading. They try to prove Tether boosts the market with this picture in their article. https://imgur.com/a/274SE The problem is 2 of the last 3 tether dumps coincide with a downturn. In fact, there is nothing in this graph that proves this theory. Also, the last tether dump/price rise coincides perfectly with the news of the majority of miners signaling segwit2x for the first time (search bitcoin or btc around that date). So do you think the market traded billions of $ at that time because of a $50 million Tether dump or because for the first time in YEARS a solution and path forward became visible?? THEY DON’T HAVE BANKING//NO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS/FAKE TETHERS-TERMS OF SERVICE In regards to banking, clearly they have some kind of banking and a way for large amounts of fiat to get in and out. The banking is not for you and me but for regional bitcoin exchanges and other large customers. You know how I know this? If they didn’t the internet would be flooded with Finex withdrawal issues, there would be a price premium on Bitfinex compared to other exchanges, just like Mt. Gox had for so long and also Bitfinex earlier in the year when the banking issues started. This article explains it very clearly (seriously read this article), it has nothing to do with this controversy, just the banking issue in April. https://medium.com/@Austerity_Sucks/why-bitfinex-went-from-a-premium-in-its-crypto-usd-pairs-to-now-a-significant-discount-e7be193d7cb0 TL;DR - All of the imbalances discussed (Finex premium) have been a result of USD frictions into Bitfinex. It has been a chain reaction resulting from the initial freeze to the various gradual withdrawal options. As soon as Bitfinex conclusively addresses the USD flow issues, the crypto pair prices will normalize (which they did) with other exchanges that don’t have banking frictions and USDT price will return to par (which it did). The premiums on Finex and Tether are what would prove something is wrong, yet they are not here. Surprisingly Finex has been at a discount to GDAX and GEMINI recently. Meaning people are willing to take a loss on prices to be able to lend on Finex. This too will normalize as people/bots arb. Aug 9th… From “arguably” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/895339675120013313 Aug 22nd…. To “admitting” bank fraud https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/900230917196836864 Listen to that audio in the second link, listen carefully. His explanation is perfectly reasonable. Banks don’t work well, consistently, or at all with crypto related companies (marijuana companies too for that matter) especially in jurisdictions that are outside US/Europe. Surprise surprise, this is nothing new. When they find out customers, deposits/wire are cryptos related they pull the plug (a reason why Trex/Polo don’t mess with USD). Also, they gave their customers a haircut, probably a lot of complaints about the hack to Wells Fargo and other banks. These are the correspondent's banks, not Finex’s, they have banking. This is how they can receive large institutional deposits and withdrawals. Which I bet make up the majority of the fiat deposits and withdrawals. Classic 80/20 business rule, 20% of your clients are providing 80% of the liquidity plus you are having banking issues (which is expected in crypto-land), so you cut this service to the 80% saving time/resources/headaches for the 20% loss in a single service to them (no fiat withdrawal/deposits- but crypto flows in and out with ease). Again if they weren’t able to get money in and out there would be a premium, there would be a long line of complaints online. I have no reason (or proof) to believe that money is NOT coming into/out of the exchange. It makes total sense too, they are the best lending platform, have one of the most liquid exchanges, and have by far the most reliable and best software/servers/UI/order options. You cannot deny this fact, they are constantly a top 3 exchange in volume, even after a hack. I use Finex (as well as others) because of all those things. Also, they have already been hacked, a second hack seems less likely (IMO, they have more to lose with another hack). They have many big events on the horizon (Ethfinex). Would a company be putting resources into these things if this is all fraud or an exit scam? I find that unlikely. Is this 100% full proof? Of course not, nothing is, especially in crypto, just my reasons for trading there. Institutional Investors - https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/are-legitimate-institutional-investors-really-coming-onto-bitfinex-s-platform-i-don-t-think-so-cb4ed5175092 Here is what this person doesn’t comprehend, what if these institutional investors are… you ready… here it comes… other exchanges that use Tether, as well as other crypto related businesses. It is only $395 million Tethers. These exchanges (Trex, Finex, Polo) are printing money. This isn’t “someone” with 100’s of millions of dollars as the article suggests, it’s many people with millions/thousands of dollars. Again this all ignores the fact that many more people have entered the ecosystem this year. This is proven by Coinbase growth, transaction growth, and exchange growth (both in volume and # of exchanges), and growth in crypto-related sub-Reddits. Yet Bitfinexed is shocked that lending hits ATH’s, but it is perfectly explainable and reasonable based on the evidence and data of gthe ecosystem. Let us not forget BTC is a finite amount, more people are going to increase demand/price, if you think this is a bubble... you haven’t seen anything yet. The TOS are sketchy and a point of concern but there are two things to keep in mind- It was necessary to word it that way, and the market clearly doesn’t care. If they had worded it that they will redeem no matter what, they would have money launderers flocking to the service (bogging down resources), plus law enforcement knocking. Tethers weren’t created to get $ in/out of crypto but to provide a safe haven and liquidity on exchanges that don’t use USD. And I would say they are working perfectly. Very few are withdrawing USDT for USD. I think it is precisely because of what the co-founder of tether refers to here (and below)… “If you want to convert USD₮ into fiat currency (or vice-versa) at tether.to, you must go through the whole “aggressive” KYC/AML process and get verified. I’ve heard from many who tried and were unable to provide sufficient documentation. Tether’s KYC/AML policies were written by experienced compliance officers and it’s critical that it be done properly and with diligence. It really is about “knowing your customer” and making sure that their uses are legitimate.” This is a perfectly reasonable explanation why people are not lining up to cash out of Tether, and also why large/reputable institutions can (exchanges, investors, etc.). TETHERS REPLY TO ALL THIS, PLUS UPCOMING AUDIT https://tether.to/tether-update/ Now ask yourself this, would a company that is operating fraudulently have a roadmap of all these new features that no one will ever use if they don’t provide these promised audits as they say they will by the end of the year? So as of now they have enough runway until the end of the year. I say we give TetheFinex the benefit of the doubt. While Tether could be operating fractionally (so to could any exchange in crypto btw), there is no proof or evidence of it today. It trades at normalized rates. You can’t just create 100’s of million of dollars without the marketing realizing somewhere. Sure, you can say this is a confidence game, but so is crypto, so is the USD, so is the concept of money. I see no reason to be more concerned with this risk than the already risky environment we trade in with exchanges. WHAT IF I”M WRONG? CRYPTO WILL IMPLODE! No it won’t. Sure there will be a dip maybe even a correction, but there are only 395 million Tethers. People will get out of Tether even at massive discounts (until $0) into crypto because they can’t get USD, but not more than the 395 million tethers circulating (at this time). At a certain discount people will understand what is going on and stop trading for Tether. BTC + ETH is worth over $100 billion, how many time does the entire amount of USDT have to turn over to cause a massive crash? What will get hit the hardest are the people left holding tether (if/when they implode) and Trex/Polo/Finex. To think Polo/Trex would rely so much on USDT that they didn’t fully vet it is absurd as well. Whats more likely, Polo/Trex’s due diligence or this @Bitfinexed person based on conjecture? I’ve already seen a Forbes contributor try and get ahold of Bitfinexed on twitter. https://twitter.com/laurashin/status/894437272241569792 Could I be wrong about all of this??? Of course, but, I feel I have provided more evidence than the other side. You are the Judge :) USEFUL INFO Some from u/udecker - Tether co-founder Tether.to is who has the backing for the token, not Bitfinex. Bitfinex is a customer of Tether. If Bitfinex wants more Tether, they make a request to Tether, just like all other Tether customers. Tether waits for USD to show up, and when it does, creates the necessary tethers and credits Bitfinex. They both have Tawainese banking so money can flow back and forth easily. (The banking industry in the country of Taiwan are under scrutiny lately because of larger legal issues not involving crypto, but clearly affecting crypto companies) https://wallet.tether.to/transparency Tether wasn’t designed to be a profit machine. It was designed to be a utility for the crypto community to provide a stable token (with all the benefits of this). Tether’s business model is this: 1. Generate fees from wire deposits and withdrawals and conversions. 2. Interest income on the reserve. Bitfinex’s parent company owns a 20% stake in Tether. People say Tether isn’t being burned. But they are being recycled which is/was always an option. I hope we can have a productive conversation around this without the usual Gox 2.0, sell it all, Bitfinex is the anti-christ comments with no substance. Give us your opinion and perspective because maybe I am missing something… but, maybe you are too. This was quite time consuming (just ask my kids and boss, lol) So if you found this info helpful you can donate if you’d like here, if not, no biggie smalls :) ETH - 0x0181D1C82229BAD741BB6c302ae523aE6DC9a1EE BTC - 14Wz4SCuKwa81UBh1U7mcaCTxMsYLLuGZK BCH- 16uby9gW79tjn5guQG8v5mTsdu6V6cYyKF
USD JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) Also known as trading the “gopher” the USDJPY pair is one of the most traded pairs in the world. The value of these currencies when compared to each other is affected by the interest rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Get the latest market information on the Dollar - Yen pair, including the live USD/JPY rate, news, analysis and Dollar - Yen forecast. Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.82% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF ... USD/JPY represents the amount of Japanese yen that can be purchased with one US dollar. At the time of the Breton Woods System the yen was fixed to the US dollar at 360JPY per 1USD, but the exchanged only lasted until the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Since then the yen has appreciated significantly against the US dollar. The yen is the third most traded currency in world, behind the ... USD/JPY live exchange rate, Charts, Forecasts, News and Macro Data. Everything you need to know about the currency pair. USD/JPY regains some poise as S&P 500 futures rise 1%. The BOJ is likely to downgrade inflation forecasts. The central bank is unlikely to take provide immediate stimulus. USD/JPY has bounced up from five-week lows seen Wednesday alongside an uptick in the US stock futures. USD JPY - Live Chart. These are our new Forex Charts. Please make sure you come back to use them often! You can also visit our old Forex Charts here. The United States dollar/Japanese yen currency pair denotes the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen and expresses it as the number of Japanese yen needed to buy one U.S. dollar.. For example, if the USD/JPY exchange rate is 115.00, it means you need 115 yen to buy one U.S. dollar. In this pair, the U.S. dollar is the base currency, and the Japanese yen is the quote currency. Japanese Yen USD JPY currency usd jpy forecast japanese yen forecast forex yen rates yen tick charts Yen quotes yen charts yen cross quotes yen forecast yen brokers yen forex news yen commentary research yen foreign exchange forex . Forex Directory. Forecasts Usd Quotes Usd Charts Crosses Forwards News Forum Fx Jobs Converter Learning Calendar Polls Futures Historical Data Calculators. Forex ... Last week’s trading was bloody for the USD/JPY performance, as the pair plunged to the 103.17 support, its lowest level in eight months. Forex Reviews & News Forex Reviews
The US dollar fell a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the ¥107 level, an area that has been supportive as of late. Because of this, a bounce could be coming but if we ... The US dollar pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the 200 day EMA has offered a significant amount of resistance. At this point, the ... Millions of traders from around the world seek out DailyFX for up-to-date forex alerts, news and analysis. Think of us as your trading friends that have access to institutional level research ... Millions of traders from around the world seek out DailyFX for up-to-date forex alerts, news and analysis. Think of us as your trading friends that have access to institutional level research ... - USD/JPY Forecast January 14, 2020, Technical Analysis. Find more information about Forex and Commodities News (https: ... S&P 500 Likely Hits 3,500 as Fed Cuts Rates Twice - Duration: 8:17 ... - USD/JPY Forecast November 14, 2019, Technical Analysis. Find more information about Forex and Commodities News (https: ... USD/JPY: Dollar - Yen Rate, Forecast, Chart, News & Analysis - Duration ... ABC News (Australia) Recommended for you 2:05 Gold will be explosive, unlike anything we’ve seen says Canada’s billionaire Frank Giustra - Duration: 20:47.